Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Shenzhen next week. The planned trilateral summit has already sparked concern across Kyiv and beyond. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, warned that the meeting could become a “Yalta 2.0 moment,” evoking the 1945 conference where global powers divided postwar Europe without input from those affected.
The three leaders are reportedly seeking China’s assistance to extricate themselves from what are described as “wars of choice.” Putin is said to be pushing for consensus on a new global order. Trump appears to endorse this approach, which has unsettled many governments excluded from the talks.
Ukraine, eastern European and Baltic states, Taiwan and Iran are among those not invited. Many of these countries rely on security guarantees from the US and its allies. The risk is that their interests, and the values they represent, could be sacrificed in negotiations they are not party to. The diplomatic truism that those absent from the table risk being “on the menu” is being cited by observers in Kyiv and Washington.
Putin’s vision reportedly involves a complex geopolitical trade-off that could redraw alliances and spheres of influence. Trump’s apparent willingness to support a deal with Putin and Xi Jinping has added to the unease. Official statements from the White House have not clarified the US position beyond confirming Trump’s attendance at the summit.
The Apec summit itself begins on 16 November. China will host leaders from across the Asia-Pacific region, but the trilateral meeting will overshadow the event. The location in Shenzhen, a southern Chinese tech hub, was reportedly chosen by Beijing to assert its growing diplomatic influence.
This gathering comes as tensions remain high over conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has drawn international condemnation and sanctions, while China’s posture toward Taiwan has grown more assertive. Neither Ukraine nor Taiwan have been invited to the summit.
Observers in the Baltic states and eastern Europe see the talks as a potential abandonment by their traditional Western backers. They fear any agreement between the US, Russia and China could undermine NATO’s security guarantees and shift the balance of power.
The summit is unconfirmed but expected to include discussions on how to reshape global security and economic arrangements. Some see it as an attempt to establish a new order separate from existing Western-led institutions.
Zelenskyy’s warning about a “Yalta 2.0” moment reflects a deep mistrust of the intentions behind the meeting. His government has not been invited to participate in any discussions, despite being at the centre of one of the world’s most violent conflicts.
China’s role is central. Beijing has positioned itself as a mediator, offering to help both Washington and Moscow find a way out of their respective wars of choice. The summit is likely to reveal how far China is willing to go to assert its influence over global affairs.
The outcome of the talks remains uncertain. What is clear is that the summit will be watched closely by those excluded, who fear a new global power divide is being drawn without their input.
According to The Guardian.
